آینده پژوهی پیشران‌ها و عوامل کلیدی مؤثر بر توسعۀ حرفه‌ای مدیران آموزشگاهی

نوع مقاله : علمی-پژوهشی (ترکیبی/ آمیخته)

نویسندگان

1 گروه علوم تربیتی، دانشکده علوم انسانی و تربیتی، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی واحد تبریز، تبریز، ایران.

2 گروه علوم تربیتی دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی واحد تبریز

3 گروه علوم تربیتی، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، واحد تبریز، تبریز، ایران .

چکیده

این پژوهش از لحاظ هدف کاربردی و از نظر روش، ترکیبی از روش‌های اسنادی و پیمایشی و از نظر ماهیت، براساس روش‌های جدید علم آینده پژوهی، تحلیلی و اکتشافی است که با به کارگیری ترکیبی از مدل‌های کیفی و کمی انجام گرفته است. با توجه به ماهیت این پژوهش، از روش تحلیل ساختاری میک‌مک و تکنیک‌های تحلیل اثرات متقاطع بهره گرفته شده است. در این راستا، پس از برگزاری جلسات اولیۀ بحث با 12 نفر از خبرگان و متخصصان مدیریت آموزشی، به عنوان جامعۀ آماری تحقیق، که از طریق روش نمونه‌گیری هدفمند و گلوله‌برفی انتخاب شده بودند، پنجاه‌و‌دو متغیر اولیه در قالب هشت بعد کلی شناسایی شد. در ادامه، متغیرهای اولیه در چارچوب ماتریس اثر متقاطع در نرم‌افزار آینده‌نگار میک‌مک تعریف شد. در نهایت، با توجه به یافته‌های پژوهش و امتیاز بالای تأثیرگذاری مستقیم و غیرمستقیم، عوامل اصلی کلیدی در آیندۀ توسعۀ حرفه‌ای مدیران مدارس در افق 1404 شناسایی شدند. از بین این عوامل، وجود برنامه‌های توسعه حرفه‌ای تأثیرگذارترین عامل کلیدی در توسعۀ حرفه‌ای مدیران مدارس در افق 1404 است. ارتباط مداوم نظام آموزشی با نظام‌های آموزشی موفق دنیا و استفاده از تجارب آنان، داشتن چشم‌انداز و راهبرد، آینده‌نگری و تفکر راهبردی سیاست گذاران و برنامه‌ریزان و حمایت دولت و مجلس در درجات بعدی اهمیت قرار دارند.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Identifying the drivers and key factors affecting the professional development of school principals in the 2025 horizon with a Futures Study approach

نویسندگان [English]

  • Amir Yousefi 1
  • Sadegh Maleki avarsin 2
  • behnam talebi 3
1 Department of Educational Sciences, Faculty of Humanities and Educational Sciences, Tabriz Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tabriz, Iran.
2 Department of Educational Sciences, Islamic Azad University, Tabriz Branch
3 Department of Educational Sciences, Islamic Azad University, Tabriz Branch, Tabriz, Iran
چکیده [English]

This research is applied in terms of purpose and in terms of method, a combination of documentary and survey methods and in terms of nature, is based on the new methods of futures scientific, analytical and exploratory methods that have been done using a combination of qualitative and quantitative models. According to the nature of this research, Mic Mac structural analysis method and cross-impact analysis techniques have been used. In this regard, after holding the initial meetings of discussion with experts and specialists of educational management, as the statistical population of the study, selected through Targeted sampling and snowball sampling method, fifty - two primary variables were identified in eight dimensions. In the following, the initial variables were defined in the framework of the cross - impact matrix in Mic Mac futures software. Finally, according to the findings of the study and the high score of direct and indirect impact, the main key factors in the future of professional development of school Principals identified on the 2025 horizon. Among these factors, the existence of professional development programs is the most influential key factor in the professional development of school principals on the 2025 horizon. The continuous connection of the educational system with the successful educational systems of the world and the use of their experiences, having a vision and strategy, foresight and strategic thinking of policymakers and planners and the support of the government and parliament are in the next degrees.

This research is applied in terms of purpose and in terms of method, a combination of documentary and survey methods and in terms of nature, is based on the new methods of futures scientific, analytical and exploratory methods that have been done using a combination of qualitative and quantitative models. According to the nature of this research, Mic Mac structural analysis method and cross-impact analysis techniques have been used. In this regard, after holding the initial meetings of discussion with experts and specialists of educational management, as the statistical population of the study, selected through Targeted sampling and snowball sampling method, fifty - two primary variables were identified in eight dimensions. In the following, the initial variables were defined in the framework of the cross - impact matrix in Mic Mac futures software. Finally, according to the findings of the study and the high score of direct and indirect impact, the main key factors in the future of professional development of school Principals identified on the 2025 horizon. Among these factors, the existence of professional development programs is the most influential key factor in the professional development of school principals on the 2025 horizon. The continuous connection of the educational system with the successful educational systems of the world and the use of their experiences, having a vision and strategy, foresight and strategic thinking of policymakers and planners and the support of the government and parliament are in the next degrees.

This research is applied in terms of purpose and in terms of method, a combination of documentary and survey methods and in terms of nature, is based on the new methods of futures scientific, analytical and exploratory methods that have been done using a combination of qualitative and quantitative models. According to the nature of this research, Mic Mac structural analysis method and cross-impact analysis techniques have been used. In this regard, after holding the initial meetings of discussion with experts and specialists of educational management, as the statistical population of the study, selected through Targeted sampling and snowball sampling method, fifty - two primary variables were identified in eight dimensions. In the following, the initial variables were defined in the framework of the cross - impact matrix in Mic Mac futures software. Finally, according to the findings of the study and the high score of direct and indirect impact, the main key factors in the future of professional development of school Principals identified on the 2025 horizon. Among these factors, the existence of professional development programs is the most influential key factor in the professional development of school principals on the 2025 horizon. The continuous connection of the educational system with the successful educational systems of the world and the use of their experiences, having a vision and strategy, foresight and strategic thinking of policymakers and planners and the support of the government and parliament are in the next degrees.

This research is applied in terms of purpose and in terms of method, a combination of documentary and survey methods and in terms of nature, is based on the new methods of futures scientific, analytical and exploratory methods that have been done using a combination of qualitative and quantitative models. According to the nature of this research, Mic Mac structural analysis method and cross-impact analysis techniques have been used. In this regard, after holding the initial meetings of discussion with experts and specialists of educational management, as the statistical population of the study, selected through Targeted sampling and snowball sampling method, fifty - two primary variables were identified in eight dimensions. In the following, the initial variables were defined in the framework of the cross - impact matrix in Mic Mac futures software. Finally, according to the findings of the study and the high score of direct and indirect impact, the main key factors in the future of professional development of school Principals identified on the 2025 horizon.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Futures Study
  • Driving forces
  • professional development
  • Cross-Impact Analysis
  • Structural Analysis