Develop a model for developing school principals' managerial abilities on the 1404 horizon based on a foresight approach

Today, the discussion of management as a competitive advantage is the most valuable asset of an organization. Creativity, innovation and high motivation of managers is one of the main foundations of an organization. Therefore, the important task of managing the organization can bring effective achievements for any organization. Managers hire the best staff, then give them the necessary training and prepare them to enter the workplace. They also help to increase employee motivation by monitoring their performance and creating a flexible and dynamic environment. The management team and managers in an organization can have a serious effect on value creation and organizations must take impressive measures related to managers to achieve their goals and implement their strategies. Management is a process that basically covers the key procedures, tasks, and policies of an organization in relation to its fundamental assets, the employees, including hiring, firing, training, performance evaluation, formulating employee preservation policies and strategies. The manager is used to describe the management and development of employees in an organization whose main task is to oversee all matters related to the management of human resources. Among social organizations and institutions, the role of education cannot be ignored due to its effects on human resource training. The education system of any society is one of the largest and most complex social systems and today is the foundation of social, economic, cultural and political development of any society. Education organizations, if they have capable and efficient managers, will be able to have an impressive infrastructure to achieve the goals of education, which will result in the development of efficacious future generation for the country. Developing the managerial skills of school principals with programs that include preparing a professional development model, designing program characteristics, implementation styles, and aspects of leadership that need improvement. As a result, the Education Organization has developed a vision based on the 1404 horizon that can nurture capable and professional managers. Compilation of a 20-year vision document is a valuable step in directing the country's activities to achieve development in various fields of education. One of the most important phrases of the document is paying special attention to Iran's position on the horizon of 1404 in the field of management. In this regard, efforts have been made to equip organizations, especially the education organization with tools and scientific decision-making skills based on future studies, to enable the development of capable managers. In this study, considering the sensitivity and undeniable role of school management in advancing educational goals, an attempt has been made to provide a model for developing the abilities of school principals in Kermanshah according to the perspective of 1404. The method of this research is practical in terms of purpose and quantitative-qualitative in terms of implementation. The research data collection tools in this study were interview in the qualitative part and a questionnaire adapted from the categories obtained in the interview in the quantitative part. The statistical population in the quantitative part included all first grade high school teachers in Kermanshah in 1399-1399 which was 425 and the statistical population of this study in the qualitative part included all first grade high school mangers in Kermanshah in 1399-1399, which in the quantitative section, referring to the Cochran's formula, 202 school teachers were selected as a sample. The sampling method was stratified random. Also, the sample of this study in the qualitative section was 22 managers who were selected based on theoretical saturation sampling method. Quantitative analysis of research data was performed based on SPSS statistical software and statistical method of Freidman test was used. The analysis of research data in the qualitative section was based on 3dmax software, and based on this, the method of qualitative data analysis was used to analyze the data extracted from the interviews.
 
What are the components of principals' managerial abilities on the horizon of 1404?
1-Primary competency components in the managerial abilities of school principals:

Spiritual aspects
Organizational capability aspects
Physical aspects
Social and cultural aspects

2- Major competency components in the managerial abilities of school principals:

Constant evolution and scientific innovation
Flexibility, multipurpose and unique features
Development and deepening of culture and scientific thinking
Deepen scientific thinking

3- Components of the current situation of managerial abilities of school principals:

Analysis of the current situation of managerial abilities of school principals
Strategic analysis of the status of managerial abilities of school principals
Identify the challenges of school principals' managerial abilities
Planning to prepare the professional sublimity of school principals

4- Components of upgrading school principals to new competencies:

Acquiring logical and scientific awareness
Strengthen scientific awareness
Upgrading the level of information technology and knowledge management
Balance between work and leisure
Creating a continuous learning environment

What is the priority of the factors affecting the managerial abilities of principals on the horizon of 1404?
In order to investigate the similarity or different of factors affecting the managerial abilities of principals in the horizon of 1404 with a futuristic approach, Friedman test was used.
the components of major competency in the managerial abilities of school principals with an average of 4 in the first priority, the components of the current situation of the managerial abilities of school principals with an average of 3 in the second priority, the components of upgrading school principals with new competencies with an average of 1.63 in the rank third, the components of primary competence in the managerial abilities of school principals are ranked fourth with an average of 1.37.
What is the model of principals' managerial abilities on the horizon of 1404 with a futuristic approach?
The futuristic approach is based on the fact that if success is achieved in any of the mentioned stages, including the current situation, initial competencies, major competencies and upgrading with new competencies, one can expect the development of managerial abilities.
In general, the results of this study showed that the components of primary competence are the managerial abilities of principals and the components of the current situation of managerial abilities of school principals are the strategic conditions of principals and also the components of major competence are the intervention conditions of managerial abilities.
The basic competency components include the development and success of managers in terms of spiritual aspects and empowerment in the organizational field. In other words, in order to develop the managerial abilities of school principals, it is necessary to strengthen the competencies of principals in the primary and major areas according to the proposed educational components. When managers have effective primary competencies, they can achieve major competencies and eventually new competencies as well.
In the futuristic approach, a combination of interviewing and reviewing previous sources is examined to obtain a model. If one expect the creation and development of managerial skills in school principals, it is necessary to educate principals based on the components mentioned in Horizon 1404. According to this training process, managerial competencies can be expected to be created in managers, and if these abilities and competencies are strengthened, efficient managers can be trained.
Based on the obtained results, practical suggestions can be made, including that the Education Organization should try to develop the managerial skills of managers based on educational programs and for this purpose emphasize on factors such as spiritual aspects, aspects of organizational capability, strengthening the cultural and social perspectives of managers. It is also suggested that in hiring managers, training programs should be applied and considered in terms of strengthening the components of primary and major competence.